Decentralized Prediction Market Augur Raises More Than Oculus Rift in 3 Days of Crowdfunding Campaign

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Decentralized Prediction Market Augur (PRNewsFoto/Augur)

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Prediction markets make use of the concept called the Wisdom of Crowds to arrive at market driven forecasts which feature a high degree of success.

Using Augur, participants buy and sell shares in the outcomes of everything from elections to the destruction of our solar system. The current market price of a share is an estimate of the probability of an event occurring. Imagine a weather report, but for everything including real world events, trends, opportunities, and threats.

If there’s a prediction market on whether Donald Trump will win the 2016 election, a share of yes that costs60 cents means he has a 60% chance of winning according to the market. If one’s right they’ll get $1 per share back.  A centralized market, the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), allows its users to wager on the outcomes of U.S. political events. Per the IEM, it typically predicts elections within one percent, more accurate than polls or expert opinions. Since 1988, it has also correctly predicted the outcome of every U.S. presidential election. Augur is built on Ethereum, a decentralized blockchain network similar to the Bitcoin network.

Utilizing this technology, its markets can effectively eliminate counterparty risk and centralized servers while creating a global market by employing cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin. On Augur, users have the power to create a prediction market on any subject they’re interested in. Market makers receive half the trading fees from markets. After an event occurs, the correct outcome (the one that actually happened, say who won an election) needs to be selected to pay out wagerers in the market. Instead of relying on third parties, Augur uses the crowd to report on these outcomes.  Reporters get half the trading fees too (based on how much reputation they own, which is being sold in Augur’s crowdfunding campaign).  Any reporters who disagree with the consensus lose reputation.

About Richard Kastelein

Founder, Publisher and Editor in Chief of Blockchain News and co-founder and director at Blockchain Partners in London/Amsterdam/NYC, Richard Kastelein is also an advisor with a number Blockchain startups doing ICOs including DECENT.ch, Inchain, Humaniq, Chronobank, eGaas and others.

He is regarded as one of the top journalists by the Blockchain and fintech communities – as is evident by his entry in the Top 150 Fintech journalists online and in the top 10 of the Blockchain Top 100 List. As a prominent keynote presenter, he has spoken on Blockchain at events in Gdansk, Amsterdam, Minsk, Dubai, Antwerp, Eindhoven etc, where he helped spread the cause for Blockchain technology and crypto-currency and, consequently, has built a notable network inthe scene.

In 2013, the European Commission appointed him as an expert for overseeing financing for emerging startups as a part of the European Commission’s 90 billion euro Horizon 2020 project, created in Brussels to promote innovation as a driving force of job creation and business ventures across Europe. He has also worked as an external expert for Innovate UK since 2012, judging startups for the UK government.

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