Decentralized Prediction Market Augur Raises More Than Oculus Rift in 3 Days of Crowdfunding Campaign

Decentralized Prediction Market Augur (PRNewsFoto/Augur)

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Prediction markets make use of the concept called the Wisdom of Crowds to arrive at market driven forecasts which feature a high degree of success.

Using Augur, participants buy and sell shares in the outcomes of everything from elections to the destruction of our solar system. The current market price of a share is an estimate of the probability of an event occurring. Imagine a weather report, but for everything including real world events, trends, opportunities, and threats.

If there’s a prediction market on whether Donald Trump will win the 2016 election, a share of yes that costs60 cents means he has a 60% chance of winning according to the market. If one’s right they’ll get $1 per share back.  A centralized market, the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), allows its users to wager on the outcomes of U.S. political events. Per the IEM, it typically predicts elections within one percent, more accurate than polls or expert opinions. Since 1988, it has also correctly predicted the outcome of every U.S. presidential election. Augur is built on Ethereum, a decentralized blockchain network similar to the Bitcoin network.

Utilizing this technology, its markets can effectively eliminate counterparty risk and centralized servers while creating a global market by employing cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin. On Augur, users have the power to create a prediction market on any subject they’re interested in. Market makers receive half the trading fees from markets. After an event occurs, the correct outcome (the one that actually happened, say who won an election) needs to be selected to pay out wagerers in the market. Instead of relying on third parties, Augur uses the crowd to report on these outcomes.  Reporters get half the trading fees too (based on how much reputation they own, which is being sold in Augur’s crowdfunding campaign).  Any reporters who disagree with the consensus lose reputation.

About Richard Kastelein


Founder of industry publication Blockchain News, partner at ICO services collective CryptoAsset Design Group (helped raise over $200m+), director of education company Blockchain Partners (Oracle Partner) and ICO event organiser at leading industry event  CryptoFinancing (first ICO event in Europe) - Richard Kastelein is an award-winning publisher, innovation executive and entrepreneur. He sits on the advisory boards of half a dozen Blockchain startups and has written over 1200 articles on Blockchain technology and startups at Blockchain News and has also published pioneering articles on ICOs in Harvard Business Review and Venturebeat.
Kastelein has spoken (keynotes & panels) on Blockchain technology in Amsterdam, Antwerp, Barcelona, Beijing, Brussels, Bucharest, Dubai, Eindhoven, Gdansk, Groningen, the Hague, Helsinki, London, Manchester, Minsk, Nairobi, Nanchang, San Mateo, Shanghai,Tel Aviv and Venice. His network is global and extensive.
He is a Canadian (Dutch/Irish/English/Métis) whose writing career has ranged from the Canadian Native Press (Arctic) to the Caribbean & Europe. He's written occasionally for Harvard Business Review, Wired, Venturebeat, The Guardian and and his work and ideas have been translated into Dutch, Greek, Polish, German and French.
A journalist by trade, an entrepreneur and adventurer at heart, Kastelein's professional career has ranged from political publishing to TV technology, boatbuilding to judging startups, skippering yachts to marketing and more as he's travelled for nearly 30 years as a Canadian expatriate living around the world.
In his 20s, he sailed around the world on small yachts and wrote a series of travel articles called, "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Seas' travelling by hitching rides on yachts (1989) in major travel and yachting publications. He currently lives in Groningen, Netherlands where he's raising three teenage daughters with his wife and sailing partner, Wieke Beenen.

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