Decentralized Prediction Market Augur Raises More Than Oculus Rift in 3 Days of Crowdfunding Campaign

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Decentralized Prediction Market Augur (PRNewsFoto/Augur)
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Prediction markets make use of the concept called the Wisdom of Crowds to arrive at market driven forecasts which feature a high degree of success.

Using Augur, participants buy and sell shares in the outcomes of everything from elections to the destruction of our solar system. The current market price of a share is an estimate of the probability of an event occurring. Imagine a weather report, but for everything including real world events, trends, opportunities, and threats.

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If there’s a prediction market on whether Donald Trump will win the 2016 election, a share of yes that costs60 cents means he has a 60% chance of winning according to the market. If one’s right they’ll get $1 per share back.  A centralized market, the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), allows its users to wager on the outcomes of U.S. political events. Per the IEM, it typically predicts elections within one percent, more accurate than polls or expert opinions. Since 1988, it has also correctly predicted the outcome of every U.S. presidential election. Augur is built on Ethereum, a decentralized blockchain network similar to the Bitcoin network.

Utilizing this technology, its markets can effectively eliminate counterparty risk and centralized servers while creating a global market by employing cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin. On Augur, users have the power to create a prediction market on any subject they’re interested in. Market makers receive half the trading fees from markets. After an event occurs, the correct outcome (the one that actually happened, say who won an election) needs to be selected to pay out wagerers in the market. Instead of relying on third parties, Augur uses the crowd to report on these outcomes.  Reporters get half the trading fees too (based on how much reputation they own, which is being sold in Augur’s crowdfunding campaign).  Any reporters who disagree with the consensus lose reputation.

About Richard Kastelein

Founder and publisher of industry publication Blockchain News (EST 2015), a partner at ICO services collective Token.Agency ($750m+ and 90+ ICOs and STOs), director of education company Blockchain Partners (Oracle Partner) – Vancouver native Richard Kastelein is an award-winning publisher, innovation executive and entrepreneur. He sits on the advisory boards of some two dozen Blockchain startups and has written over 1500 articles on Blockchain technology and startups at Blockchain News and has also published pioneering articles on ICOs in Harvard Business Review and Venturebeat. Irish Tech News put him in the top 10 Token Architects in Europe.

Kastelein has an Ad Honorem - Honorary Ph.D. and is Chair Professor of Blockchain at China's first Blockchain University in Nanchang at the Jiangxi Ahead Institute of Software and Technology. In 2018 he was invited to and attended University of Oxford's Saïd Business School for Business Automation 4.0 programme.  Over a half a decade experience judging and rewarding some 1000+ innovation projects as an EU expert for the European Commission's SME Instrument programme as a startup assessor and as a startup judge for the UK government's Innovate UK division.

Kastelein has spoken (keynotes & panels) on Blockchain technology in Amsterdam, Antwerp, Barcelona, Beijing, Brussels, Bucharest, Dubai, Eindhoven, Gdansk, Groningen, the Hague, Helsinki, London (5x), Manchester, Minsk, Nairobi, Nanchang, Prague, San Mateo, San Francisco, Santa Clara (2x), Shanghai, Singapore (3x), Tel Aviv, Utrecht, Venice, Visakhapatnam, Zwolle and Zurich.

He is a Canadian (Dutch/Irish/English/Métis) whose writing career has ranged from the Canadian Native Press (Arctic) to the Caribbean & Europe. He's written occasionally for Harvard Business Review, Wired, Venturebeat, The Guardian and Virgin.com, and his work and ideas have been translated into Dutch, Greek, Polish, German and French. A journalist by trade, an entrepreneur and adventurer at heart, Kastelein's professional career has ranged from political publishing to TV technology, boatbuilding to judging startups, skippering yachts to marketing and more as he's travelled for nearly 30 years as a Canadian expatriate living around the world. In his 20s, he sailed around the world on small yachts and wrote a series of travel articles called, 'The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Seas' travelling by hitching rides on yachts (1989) in major travel and yachting publications. He currently lives in Groningen, Netherlands where he's raising three teenage daughters with his wife and sailing partner, Wieke Beenen.

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