By Denis Mwirigi
BTC is currently trading at $66,871.04 as of press time, a slight drop by 0.68% in the last 24 hours according to Coinmarketcap data. Lately, BTC has tried to recover from the overall crypto market sell-off witnessed in the last few weeks.
Is the recent low at 53K the last we witnessed before BTC hit 100K?
Looking at the technicals, BTC has been consolidating in a bullish flag post-halving event in April 2024. Currently, it is testing a crucial double resistance level comprising an ascending trendline and the bullish flag resistance. For a rally back to its all-time high and a fresh one soon, BTC needs to surpass this confluence and close above it to confirm the bullish breakout.
BTC Daily Chart {Source: TradingView}
If this double confluence is breached, then BTC Can start a rally past the $100K target, a mark that happens to be the same height as the bullish flag height.
But how long can this take?
Based on previous halvings data on a tweet from Stock Pattern Pros/Tim, there has always been a repeated cycle of consolidation, followed by a bull phase. If such history is to repeat after this year’s halving, BTC is projected to hit past $100K.
Source: X
According to Martinez who is a renown crypto analyst, he states in a recently shared tweet that Bitcoin is showing signs of a double bottom pattern with a bullish RSI divergence on the lower time frames. He also goes ahead to state that it is still showing signs of a breakout from a descending trendline after the RSI chart has confirmed the breakout.
What tale does metrics tell?
According to Cryptoquant data, the profit/loss margin is not constant and varies greatly. The margin peaked in March 2024, with the price rising to about $70,000. After that, the margin decreased significantly and fluctuated around this level.
The 30-day SMA eliminates these spikes and troughs and reveals a decline in profit margins from March to July 2024.
The fact that the profit margin has shrunk despite the relatively stable prices in mid-2024 suggests that many investors may have purchased the stock at a higher price. This could put selling pressure on investors if they want to break even.This could be the reason behind prices ranging between $65000 and $70000 in the recent past.
Source: Cryptoquant
In the netflow data from Cryptoquant indicates smaller and balanced inflow and outflows.
Our analysis on Cryptoquant data indicated that from October 2023 to February 2024, Bitcoin saw a strong uptrend with significant negative netflows.This could be as a result of investors moving BTC to private wallets. For the period February to July 2024, Bitcoin consolidated in the $60,000-$70,000 range, indicating balanced netflows. July’s breakout above $70,000 showed slight negative netflows.
Source: Cryptoquant
Both technical fundamentals and recent development on the Spot Bitcoin ETFs which increase the exchange inflow from institutional activities indicates a potential bullish rally that could push BTC towards the $100k target.
