Solana (SOL) is showing strong signs of a bullish breakout. A falling wedge pattern has appeared on its chart, indicating a possible price surge. At press time, Solana price trades at $155, with a 4% intraday gain and daily trading volume of $2.62 billion. Experts believe a breakout could take the token toward the $200 level.

Falling Wedge Pattern Suggests Uptrend

Solana’s current chart pattern shows a falling wedge, a technical formation often linked to trend reversals. This pattern occurs when the price forms lower highs and lower lows while narrowing over time. Analysts consider this structure bullish when paired with rising volume and momentum indicators.

In early May, Solana bounced from the lower support of this wedge, signaling a potential reversal. The price attempted to break through the upper resistance line but faced rejection. If Solana manages to close above this level, the wedge’s projected move could push the price up by over 50%, aiming for the $280 mark. However, the key resistance at $200 remains a major hurdle for this rally.

Solana’s technical indicators also offer some confirmation of upward momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator flashed a buy signal in early May, adding strength to the bullish case. Similarly, Solana’s Bollinger Bands are widening, showing higher price volatility and supporting a continued upward push.

On the other hand, the Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures the strength of a trend, is pointing downward. This suggests the current trend is weak and may require stronger buying pressure to continue upward. A reversal in the ADX would increase the chances of a sustained rally past $200.

Whale Activity and Network Usage Pose Challenges

Despite the bullish technical setup, certain market data suggests caution. Whale activity has been on the rise. On-chain data shows that a major wallet unstaked 50,000 SOL and moved the tokens to Binance. This wallet has unstaked 175,000 SOL in the past two months, which may indicate plans to sell or rotate capital to other assets.

Data from DeFiLlama shows the network activity has also seen a downturn. Solana’s total value locked (TVL) has fallen by over $1 billion in less than three weeks, now standing at around $8.4 billion. Lower TVL shows reduced blockchain utility, which can put pressure on price performance.

Analysts Project Recovery But Urge Caution

Analysts still see room for growth. The Solana ecosystem remains strong, and upcoming ETF speculation could boost investor interest. He projected that the SOL price could trade between $155 and $178 by the end of June, with a breakout above $200 possible if momentum builds. 

While the technical and fundamental indicators provide a bullish bias, risks remain. Investors should monitor price resistance levels, trend indicators like ADX, and on-chain activity to assess the sustainability of the rally. The $200 level remains a psychological and technical barrier that could define the next move.