Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant and prominent figure in crypto analysis, has dismissed the traditional Bitcoin cycle theory. His bold statement now admits that the model does not reflect the true dynamics of the current crypto market. 

Earlier in May 2025, Ki Young Ju also admitted that his earlier market predictions were wrong. This stems from the fact that his assumptions, especially those based on predictability of the market based on whale whale activity and retail behavior, are now invalid as the current market cycles are driven by institutional players. 

Whales No Longer Pass the ‘Bitcoin Baton’ to Retail!

At the core of Ki Young Ju’s previous Bitcoin cycle theory was a simple model: accumulate when whales buy, sell when retail piles in. The CryptoQuant CEO believed this structure created reliable bull and bear cycles. However, the logic has unraveled as the market no longer follows those steps. 

In a recent post on X, Ki Young Ju has apologized for wrong predictions based on the traditional Bitcoin cycle theory which he has now claimed is dead. According to Ki, in the past, whales distributed Bitcoin to retail investors at cycle peaks. That behavior fueled predictable surges and crashes. But now, old whales are selling not to retail but to newly emerging long-term institutional holders, who are not seeking quick profits but rather building strategic positions. 

“Bitcoin cycle theory is dead. My predictions were based on it – buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds,” Ki wrote. 

Because of this transition, the market is now difficult to predict. This transition has also been visible in the data. The number of Bitcoin holders has increased, while the number of active traders has declined. 

The result of this is that the market is growing with a base of long-term conviction, not short-term speculation. That shift, Ki says, invalidates his earlier assumptions about how and when cycles end. Ki also acknowledged that “institutional adoption is bigger than we thought.”

“Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we thought. Trading feels pointless. Holders now outnumber traders. My mistake was ignoring this shift in my “bull cycle is over” call,” Ki noted. 

#Bitcoin cycle theory is dead.

My predictions were based on it—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds.

Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we…

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) July 24, 2025

BTC’s Institutional Adoption Rewrites Market Logic

Data from CryptoQuant supports Ki’s observations. Since early 2023, retail investors have been steadily reducing their Bitcoin exposure. In a recent report, on-chain analyst Burakkesmeci pointed out that holdings by this group are shrinking, even as institutional wallets, funds, and ETFs are accumulating aggressively.

“The behavior of different investor segments reveals why this cycle is diverging from the previous ones…At this point, retail accumulation has turned significantly negative…Quiet and smart money is currently on stage – and most people are still watching from the sidelines,” Burakkesmeci noted. 

The absence of retail-driven rallies is a major departure from the classic Bitcoin cycle. In such cycles euphoria among small investors often triggered steep price surges followed by sharp corrections. 

In May 2025, Ki Young Ju also pointed out that Bitcoin market dynamics have flipped. “In the past, the Bitcoin market was pretty simple,” he said. “The main players were old whales, miners, and new retail investors, basically passing the bag to each other.” Now, the market is shaped by much larger and more strategic entities – ranging from MicroStrategy and BlackRock to national governments. 

Old Cycle Models No Longer Predict New Market Risks

The implications of the shift in Bitcoin go beyond broken predictions. Forecasting risk has become more complex. In earlier years, panicked selling by retail holders was a clear signal of a bear market. But if today’s key players are institutions holding billions in assets, panic may take a different form – and could carry deeper systemic risks.

For risk managers and analysts, this presents a dilemma. How do you identify market tops or potential crashes when the players are long-term funds rather than emotional day traders? According to Ki, the old playbook can’t provide answers.

Previously, Ki likened the current situation to a game of Musical Chairs, where the rules – and even the players – have changed. If institutional investors decide to de-risk rapidly, the fallout may be far more significant than previous retail-led downturns. Ki’s admission underscores a broader truth in crypto: what once worked doesn’t always last. The market is evolving, and so must the models used to understand it.