Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hover around a narrow trading band with little movement on key timeframes. On the day, the price trades at $115,943, down 0.8%, flat on the week, and showing only a 1.87% gain over the past month. This muted activity has drawn attention to one critical level that could determine the next direction for the market.
According to market analyst Ali Charts, the most important support for Bitcoin now stands at $115,440. This support stems from the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, a widely used tool for spotting key points of overvaluation or undervaluation in Bitcoin’s price cycle. Holding or losing this level will determine the next price action for BTC.
Why $115,440 is the Most Important Support Level for BTC
In his most recent Bitcoin analysis, Ali Charts pointed out that $115,440 is the most pivotal price for Bitcoin. This value is directly obtained from the Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Bands by Glassnode, which is a metric that compares market value against realized value.
Bitcoin $BTC losing $115,440 support could spell trouble ahead! https://t.co/GPy2zOZWTX
— Ali (@ali_charts) September 20, 2025
If Bitcoin holds above $115,440, there could be a resurgence in bullish momentum. In this case, the target as per the bands is around $137, 300. Such a rally would trigger robust upside momentum as investors seek new price highs.
On the other hand, inability to hold the support would change the mood for BTC. Any move below $115,440 will put the coin at a risk of sliding towards $93,600. This would rattle the confidence potentially encouraging more aggressive selling.
The analysis by Ali Charts renders $115,440 as the make-or-break level for Bitcoin. Future price actions for the pioneer crypto thus lies in the ability of the bulls to hold this support.
Bitcoin’s EMAs Reinforce the Test Ahead
Beyond the Pricing Bands, exponential moving averages(EMAs) also underline the battle forming near current prices. At the moment, the daily chart on TradingView shows Bitcoin’s 20-day EMA sits at $114,573, just below the support highlighted.
However, the 50-day EMA of $113,948 and the 100-day EMA of $111,772 offer other immediate levels of support. The concentration of these moving averages indicate that BTC has established a good technical foundation. Nevertheless, losing them in quick succession might fast-track selling and drag the price down.
On the other hand, the 200-day EMA, which helps to track the health of the market over the long-term, is even lower at $105,810. This remains the backbone of Bitcoin’s bullish structure. So long as the price stays above the 200-day, the broader uptrend remains intact. Still, a retreat to this level would likely mean months of sideways consolidation before another major breakout attempt.
Bitcoin now faces one of its most decisive tests of the year. Ali Charts stresses that $115,440 is the level to watch. Hold it, and momentum could carry the price toward $137,300. Lose it, and a deeper slide toward $93,600 becomes likely. With the EMAs clustering just below, the coming sessions may determine whether Bitcoin extends its bullish cycle or shifts into a corrective phase.
[…] Hayes told the audience in Seoul that the key factor behind his forecast is liquidity expansion. He believes the US Treasury is preparing a currency expansion plan, while the Federal Reserve is leaning toward a series of interest rate cuts. According to him, this combination will release more money into financial markets, creating a bullish environment for Bitcoin. […]
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