Solana (SOL) is up by 2.4% over the past 24 hours. However, on the monthly timeframe, SOL still has a bearish outlook having dropped by 22.5%. Key resistance points have held the price at bay and could further upside momentum. 

At the same time, long-term wallet activity is moving in the wrong direction. Long-term holders(LTH) are trimming their positions, raising questions about whether the recent price recovery will hold. 

SOL Continues to Face Bearish Pressure

SOL continues to trade under a cluster of supply stacked between $140 and $142, per the daily chart on TradingView. Today, the coin is trading at $142.16 with each approach above this zone having been met with selling. 

The current exponential moving averages (EMAs) structure also leans bearish. Solana is currently sitting below all the EMAs with a bearish crossover coming up. If the 200-day EMA crosses above the 100-day EMA, then SOL could face immense selling pressure. 

For buyers, the key line remains $143. A daily close above that level would show that supply in the $140–$142 region has finally been absorbed. Anything short of that keeps the pressure on the price. If SOL faces another resistance, the bounce will likely fizzle out, putting the lower range back in focus. 

Should the market fail to clear $143, downside targets might open up. The next crucial support sits around $130. This level acted as a key reaction zone in the previous correction and would likely attract buyers again. But continued rejection at $143 raises the odds that the market drifts back toward this area.

Long-Term Holders Are Pulling Back

On-chain data shows that there is an observable decline in confidence among Solana’s long-term holders. The 1-2 year cohort has reduced supply to 17.24%, down from 19.28% a month ago. This indicates that this group is not accumulating in the current market, but rather distributing into the market. 

Long-term holders generally offer stability in times of uncertainty. But their move to minimize exposure is a sign that they are worried about the sustainability of the recent rebound. Furthermore, rallies tend to break when experienced holders increase supply in the market, during a weak market. 

This trend also aligns with current technical outlook, supporting the thesis that Solana’s recent recovery attempt is not backed by solid conviction. 

What’s Next for SOL?

Solana’s next major move depends on how the price reacts around the current level. Clearing resistance around $143 would give buyers their first real momentum signal in weeks. But still, this wouldn’t guarantee a shift in the trend change, but only confirm that resistance is weakening.

If SOL fails to break above $143, the setup may flip back to risk-off. The recent bounce might thus lose credibility, and sellers will likely push the price toward the $130 area.