The probability of a Cardano ETF being approved by 2025 has risen to its highest level yet. According to prediction market Polymarket, odds for a Cardano ETF now stand at 79%. This increase signals growing confidence among investors and analysts toward future approval by U.S. regulators.

Polymarket Odds Reach New Record on Cardano ETF

Polymarket has reported a steady increase in the likelihood of a Cardano ETF over recent months. The odds rose from about 60% earlier this year to the current 79%, making it the highest level ever recorded on the platform. This increase in sentiment suggests increased expectations for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to authorize a Cardano ETF within the next year.

Bloomberg ETF analysts have echoed this growing confidence. According to Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, the odds for crypto ETF approvals—covering XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano—now stand at 90%. The trend is being explained as an element of reaction to favorable regulatory change and greater interaction between the SEC and asset managers.

SEC Engagement Fuels Confidence in ADA ETF Prospects

The talks that are still going on between the SEC and financial firms are also helping in the heightened optimism. According to analysts, SEC authorities continue to hold discussions with issuers of ETFs. Such communication is gaining endorsement as the regulating body has taken into account the widespread approval of crypto ETFs.

The new leadership in the SEC is also regarded as a likely factor. The SEC had under its current chairman Paul Atkins, indicated increased willingness to accept digital asset-related financial derivatives. According to the analysts, the infinite meeting attitude on old regulatory barriers is a positive indication to the market players.

ETFs are gaining traction as a way of achieving an indirect exposure to crypto assets as traditional finance interacts more with crypto assets. The fact that Cardano has been involved in such discussions suggests that it has an increasing reach to the institutional community.

Cardano Price Faces Pressure Amid Positive ETF Outlook

Amid the healthy ETF outlook, Cardano also feels the heat as it presents a struggle in the market price. ADA has depreciated after five days. As of writing, it had fallen by more than 1%.

Its new decline is partly explained by a wider crypto sell-off associated with the geopolitical tensions. The Israel-Iran conflict triggered large-scale liquidations in digital assets. ADA was not immune to this trend.

Data from Santiment also shows large investors moving out of ADA. Wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA offloaded about 230 million tokens mid-week. This suggests short-term uncertainty despite the long-term positive sentiment around the ETF.

Institutional Interest and Market Volatility Create Mixed Signals

ADA has a high institutional interest as the probability of the ETF approval increased to 79%. Nevertheless, traders are cautious, as depicted by the activity in the market. Bigger investors still observe the prices and the macroeconomic indicators before injecting more finances.

The volatility of the price short term might not influence the chances of ETF approval, but it influences the behavior of investors. Though there is increasing long-term interest in ADA as a potential ETF, price pressure is an unknown in the short term.

Polymarket had an ongoing Cardano ETF market. Further clarity will probably be reached in successive months as SEC keeps interacting with the stakeholders. The official channels will be followed to see the updates by investors.