Cryptocurrency analysis from David Thomas, Director and Co-Founder of GlobalBlock:
Another torrid week for the cryptocurrency market has seen prices continue to fall with Bitcoin plunging to a new year-to-date low. However, more worrying perhaps is that the sliding price does not seem to currently show much sign of abating. If we cast our minds back to this time last year Bitcoin was priced at $13,500 and talk was of further moves higher which did indeed materialise, however now there is a real threat that 2018 ends with an attack of the next major level of support at the $2,580 level.
Despite this, many billionaire investors in traditional financial markets remain optimistic about the long-term upward trend in crypto despite the near 85 percent decline in valuation across the board. The simple fact is that these high-profile investors can manage losses that arise from these movements in high-risk emerging assets as they are only a proportionately small part of their overall portfolios, and they believe in the value that will be created in the long term. However, as we are witnessing now- retail investors do not have the same sort of approach and so these movements lower are causing, even forcing many to liquidate their holdings.
What is worth remembering is that this is not the first “cycle” that we have seen in Bitcoin with the last nine years producing five such cycles with an average of an 85% drop from the high to low (something in percentage terms we are not too far away from now). 2018 may not have been the year that many in the industry wanted for crypto and the short-term signs look like there may be some more pain to come. It will be interesting to see if the festive period, which traditionally sees volume in other asset classes dry up and volatility increase, is mirrored by the crypto market or whether there’s a strong end to the stormy year.
Past Week Talking Points
- Zug in Switzerland, which is also known as “Crypto Valley” has been ranked as the fastest growing tech community in Europe
- Nasdaq has confirmed that it plans to launch BTC futures in the first half of 2019
- Hester Peirce- Commissioner of the SEC- after pushing back ETF approval decision until the end of February 2019 was quoted as saying on the matter: “Definitely possible that it could be 20 years from now, or it could be tomorrow. Don’t hold your breath.”
- A recent national survey from Germany has shown that over a third of big German businesses consider blockchain technology to be as revolutionary as the internet
- Mastercard have filed a patent for a system that would anonymize transactions on a blockchain
BTC Price: $3,557
Last 7 Days: -11%
In addition to earlier comments, on average it has taken 67 weeks for Bitcoin prices to recover and then go on to make a new all-time high from each of its past five major corrections. If we look at the last previous high of $19,500, then 67 weeks from this point would be 2nd Quarter of 2019, so watch this space.
3rd December: $5,232,066,294 (BTC price of $4,029)
10th December: $4,923,702,664 (BTC price of $3,557)
5.89% decrease in trading volume in the last 7 days
ETH Price: $92.66
After a couple of attempts to break below the $100 mark, on December 6th double digits was seen and held with a move to as low as $83. On a technical basis, ETH is currently showing as deeply oversold, although with overall sentiment surrounding crypto generally at the moment, it may struggle to turn around, despite expectation that there should be some buyers at these levels. As tends to the be case, the old level of support at $100 now becomes the resistance to the upside, and so we will need to see a concerted push back above this level to perhaps get a glimmer of a reversal back higher again.
Last 7 Days: -17%
Last 7 Days Big Market Movers
Veros VRS UP 568% Price: $0.08
Evencoin EVN UP 442% Price: $0.29
KWH Coin KWH UP 145% Price: $0.001
Market Cap. Dominance
Other ALT-Coins: 25.16%