This weeks Cryptocurrency analysis from David Thomas, Director and Co-Founder of GlobalBlock

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By David Thomas

With the festive break rapidly approaching, those looking for any crumb of comfort from the crypto market or indeed broader macroeconomic news should probably just surrender to over eating, family arguments and endless re-runs early.

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Along with the ongoing Brexit saga and Donald J. Trump show, crypto markets continue to leach value with overall market cap across cryptos now threatening to break down through the $100 billion level.  Bearing in mind a year ago the overall market cap was nearly $594 billion, it has been one very bearish year! Unlike traditional assets, the tricky thing with crypto is determining its “fair value” and with BTC struggling to hold the $3,000 it still shows little sign of settling down.

Perhaps the only crumb of comfort to take from the whole situation is that a recent study has shown that ID verified crypto users have doubled in the first three quarters of 2018 from 18 to 35 million users perhaps suggesting that despite the adjustment in price, adoption is slowly picking up.

Here at GlobalBlock with the year drawing to a close, we have been working on a couple of articles to keep an eye out for throughout the Christmas period. First up is our brief retrospective on Bitcoin given that we are 10 years down the road from its inception and secondly we take a look into 2019 and the roadmap for the year ahead.

Past Week Talking Points

  • The US SEC Chairman- Jay Clayton gave a speech last week in which he expressed that ICO’s can be an effective way of raising capital providing that securities laws are followed.
  • Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz remains resolute in his view of the crypto market if not slightly short in the analogy department: “The audience is more sober now- the drug is gone… but it’s not going to zero. We’re at the methadone clinic”.
  • Basis- a major US based stablecoin project is going to close its operations and return the majority of its $133 million of funding.
  • Despite filing three E.U trademarks on blockchain and cryptocurrency-software- Samsung has refuted rumours that it plans to launch a crypto cold wallet on its Galaxy S10 smartphone.

BTC Price: $3,287
Last 7 Days: -7.5%

1month: -40.56%

12months: -83.23%

BTC Commentary
With BTC down another 7% this week, $3,000 is thus far proving to provide some decent support although many feel that we are still yet to “bottom out”.  Any sustained breakdown below the $3,000 will put the predicted $2,400 level firmly in sight, which should hopefully exhaust the bears and tee the market up for a more positive start and upswing into 2019.  As we edge towards the festive period, volume has appeared to drain out of the market over the last 7 days (down 24%) with volume now having halved (from $6.5bn) over the last 3 weeks.

BTC Volume
10th December: $4,923,702,664 (BTC price of $3,557)
17th December: $3,717,441,249 (BTC price of $3,287)
24% decrease in trading volume in the last 7 days

ETH Price: $87.03
Last 7 Days: -6%

1month: -50%

12months: -88%

ETH Commentary
Ether has been clinging on between $83 and $102 whilst all the while really struggling to sustain above the $100 mark.  The distinct lack of buyers and struggle to push higher could once again encourage sellers to become involved once more and if another break lower is witnessed then a target of $66 would most likely be next.  Many industry experts consider ETH to be very oversold at current prices, however the technical picture seems to be telling a somewhat different story.

Last 7 Days Big Market Movers:
Veros                                        VRS        UP 590%      Price: $0.38
Arbitrage                                   ARB        UP 181%      Price: $6.40
Swarm                                      SWM       UP 156%      Price: $0.27

Market Cap. Dominance:

BTC: 54.9%
XRP: 11.35%
ETH: 8.65%
Other ALT-Coins: 25.1%

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